One Nation has increased its lead over the Coalition with the divide between the right-wing parties at its widest since Angus Taylor took the reins following a bloody spill against one-time leader Sussan Ley, new polling has found. This latest Roy Morgan poll delivers yet another warning shot to the major parties and confirms what many everyday Australians have been feeling for months: the political establishment is losing its grip on the nation.

The poll by Roy Morgan found primary support for One Nation was at 25.5 per cent, while the Coalition held just 23 per cent of the vote. This significant gap highlights the growing frustration among conservative and working-class voters who feel abandoned by traditional parties. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation continues to gain momentum as the authentic voice for those tired of broken promises from Canberra.

One Nation has surged past Labor for three consecutive weeks since negative gearing and capital gains tax changes were announced as part of the controversial 2026-27 budget. These unpopular measures have clearly backfired on Anthony Albanese’s government, driving voters toward alternatives that promise real relief rather than more taxes and regulations.

Roy Morgan’s government confidence rating dropped three points to a low of 65, with a significant majority of Australians (60.5 per cent) stating that the country was “going in the wrong direction”. Only 25.5 per cent said Australia was “going in the right direction”. This collapse in confidence reflects deep anxiety about the economy, energy security, and the overall direction of the nation under current leadership.

The plummeting confidence was attributed to the persistent impacts of fuel shortages and the energy crisis amid the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Australians are feeling the pain at the pump and in their weekly shopping bills, and they are increasingly blaming a government that appears disconnected from their daily struggles.

Anthony Albanese delivered a fuel update on Monday in which he warned the economic impact of the Middle East conflict would be felt by Australians for some time. “These are volatile and uncertain times, and I want to make it clear that when the conflict ends, that doesn’t mean that the economic tale concludes,” the Prime Minister said. Many viewed the statement as further proof that ordinary Australians will continue to bear the burden while Canberra offers little practical relief.

If a federal election was held now, Labor would retain government but with a reduced majority. Despite a drop in primary votes, Labor was still leading on a two-party preferred basis at 53 per cent compared to the Coalition’s 47 per cent. However, these numbers mask a deeper fragmentation in Australian politics that could dramatically change the outcome once preferences are fully considered.

The next federal election contest is likely to be between One Nation and Labor, according to the polls. In scenarios where either Labor or the Coalition squared off against One Nation, it would more than likely lead to a hung parliament. This prospect is sending alarm bells ringing through both major parties as they realize their traditional dominance is under serious threat.

The poll was conducted between May 18-24 and surveyed more than 1,600 electors via text. Its findings paint a clear picture of a country that is politically restless and increasingly open to alternatives outside the two-party system that has dominated Australian politics for generations.

Pauline Hanson and One Nation have successfully tapped into widespread discontent over cost of living pressures, housing affordability, energy costs, and a sense that ordinary Australians are being left behind. The party’s straightforward message of putting Australians first, controlling borders, protecting local jobs, and demanding value from government continues to resonate strongly across regional and suburban electorates.

The widening gap between One Nation and the Coalition reveals deep dissatisfaction within conservative ranks. Many traditional Liberal and National voters feel the current Coalition leadership has failed to offer a strong enough alternative to Labor’s policies. Angus Taylor’s leadership appears unable to stem the flow of support toward Pauline Hanson’s more assertive and unapologetic approach.

This poll result also highlights the failure of Anthony Albanese’s government to address the real concerns of working Australians. Despite maintaining a two-party preferred lead, Labor’s primary vote continues to erode as voters search for genuine solutions rather than more government intervention and tax increases.

The controversial 2026-27 budget, with its changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, has clearly damaged the government’s standing. Many middle-class and aspiring homeowners see these measures as direct attacks on their financial future, pushing them toward parties that promise to protect their interests.

Energy policy remains another major flashpoint. Persistent fuel shortages and high electricity prices have left many Australians angry and looking for alternatives. One Nation’s consistent advocacy for cheaper and more reliable energy sources stands in stark contrast to the major parties’ approaches, which many view as unrealistic and ideologically driven.

The Roy Morgan poll confirms what has been evident on the ground for some time: Australian politics is undergoing a significant realignment. The comfortable two-party dominance that has defined the country for decades is cracking, and One Nation is perfectly positioned to capitalise on this shift.

For the Coalition, these numbers represent a serious warning. Unless they can reconnect with their traditional base and offer clearer alternatives on key issues like cost of living, immigration, and energy, they risk further erosion of support to One Nation.

Labor’s position is equally precarious. While they may still lead on two-party preferred terms, their declining primary vote and widespread dissatisfaction with the direction of the country suggest vulnerability in a multi-party contest. A hung parliament scenario could give One Nation significant influence in the next parliament.

Pauline Hanson’s leadership has once again proven resilient and effective. Her willingness to address issues that other politicians avoid has built a loyal and growing base of support. The latest poll numbers validate her strategy of focusing on the concerns of everyday Australians rather than chasing elite approval in Canberra.

As the next federal election approaches, all parties will be forced to recalibrate their strategies. One Nation’s rise is no longer a temporary protest phenomenon but a structural change in Australian politics. The major parties can no longer ignore the growing demand for alternatives that prioritise Australian sovereignty, economic security, and common sense.

The coming months will be crucial as voters continue to assess their options. With cost of living pressures showing little sign of easing and public confidence in government at low levels, the conditions remain favourable for One Nation’s continued growth.

This poll serves as a wake-up call for the political establishment. Australians are increasingly willing to support parties that speak directly to their concerns and offer practical solutions. One Nation’s surge demonstrates that when mainstream parties fail to deliver, voters will look elsewhere.

The fragmentation of the right-wing vote between One Nation and the Coalition creates both challenges and opportunities. While it may split the conservative vote in some seats, it also forces a national conversation about the issues that matter most to ordinary Australians.

Ultimately, this latest Roy Morgan poll reinforces One Nation’s position as a serious political force capable of reshaping Australia’s future. As dissatisfaction with the major parties grows, Pauline Hanson’s party stands ready to offer a genuine alternative that puts Australian citizens and their families first.

The political landscape is changing rapidly, and the old rules no longer apply. The next federal election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and consequential in modern Australian history.