Trump’s Young-Voter Problem Deepens as New Polling Shows Broad Erosion — and Republicans Start to Flinch

WASHINGTON — A year into President Trump’s second term, new polling suggests a widening gap between the coalition that returned him to the White House and the country he is now trying to govern — with the most abrupt deterioration showing up among younger Americans.

A new survey from Pew Research Center puts Mr. Trump’s overall job approval at 37%, with 61% disapproving — a further slide from the fall and a reminder that his support remains narrow even by the standards of an era defined by political polarization.

But the topline masks a more politically consequential story: the shift inside demographic groups that campaigns typically fight to win on the margins. In the Pew tables, adults 18 to 29 approve of Mr. Trump at 30% and disapprove at 69%; among 30 to 49, the figures are 34% approve and 64% disapprove. Those are punishing numbers for a party that spent much of 2024 insisting that young men — and a slice of disaffected younger voters more broadly — were drifting rightward.

That drift is now being tested by the realities of governing: persistent cost pressures, the administration’s aggressive immigration tactics, and a steady churn of controversies that play out in real time across social media — where younger voters get their news, and where political narratives can harden quickly.

A backlash fueled by tactics, not just ideology

In recent weeks, the administration has faced intensified scrutiny over its immigration enforcement approach, particularly after high-profile incidents in Minneapolis drew condemnation that spilled beyond the usual partisan lines. A The Washington Post analysis described a “waning” tolerance — including among Republicans — for tactics that voters see as exceeding what they believed they were endorsing in 2024, especially after civilian deaths that became flashpoints online.

For Republicans staring at midterm math, the worry is not only moral or procedural; it is practical. Immigration had been one of Mr. Trump’s strongest issues with his base, a shield against weaknesses elsewhere. The more that issue becomes associated with images and stories that repel moderates — or galvanize younger voters against him — the less protective it becomes.

The “document dump” dynamic — and what it does (and doesn’t) prove

Another accelerant is the renewed attention on Jeffrey Epstein-related records — a subject that has long functioned as political dynamite, and that now circulates across TikTok, YouTube, and podcasts with the force of a mass-culture event.

Last week, the ABC News reported that the Justice Department released three million pages from its files connected to Epstein under new transparency requirements, with additional material withheld for reasons including victim privacy and the presence of child sexual abuse material. In that reporting, officials acknowledged that Mr. Trump’s name appears “thousands of times” in the released documents, while also noting that many mentions are references in news articles rather than evidence of wrongdoing.

The practical effect, however, is less legal than cultural: “Epstein files” has become a shorthand online for establishment corruption, elite impunity, and institutional cover-ups — themes that resonate with voters who were drawn to anti-establishment messaging in the first place. That is particularly true among younger men who consume politics through the language of betrayal and “red-pills,” rather than party platforms.

The risk for Mr. Trump is that even when claims outrun the evidence, the emotional conclusion (“they’re all protecting each other”) can take hold — and it is difficult to dislodge once it becomes part of someone’s identity-driven political worldview.

Affordability, housing, and the feeling of a broken promise

If immigration and scandal shape the mood, economics still shapes the vote. And here, too, Mr. Trump is confronting a perception gap: many younger voters say they are not experiencing the kind of day-to-day relief they expected.

That tension sharpened after Mr. Trump said he did not want to drive home prices down — remarks that were widely clipped and circulated by political accounts and creators. Investopedia described the thrust of his argument as an effort to improve affordability via mortgage rates while avoiding steep declines in home values — a framing that economists note can collide with the reality facing first-time buyers.

The politics of housing is uniquely unforgiving. Older homeowners hear “protect my equity.” Younger renters hear “keep me locked out.” When those messages collide, the party in power rarely benefits from the ambiguity.

From the internet to the ballot: signs in the states

Democrats see a pathway through that dissatisfaction, and they are pointing to actual election results — not just commentary. In Iowa, a series of special elections has become an early-warning system for both parties.

A Democrat, Mike Zimmer, won a state senate special election in January 2025 in a district Mr. Trump carried by 21 points, according to the Iowa Capital Dispatch. And in August 2025, Democrat Catelin Drey won a special election in another district Mr. Trump had carried by 10 points, according to Iowa Public Radio.

Special elections are not destiny — turnout is different, the stakes feel local, and the electorate is smaller. But they can reveal intensity, and intensity is often what flips the House in a midterm. If younger voters are souring on the president while older voters remain merely polarized, Democrats do not need a landslide to gain seats; they need motivation in the right places.

A fraying coalition — and an open question

There are signs that the discontent is not limited to progressive spaces. A Newsweek report highlighted CNN analyst commentary describing an unusually steep swing in Mr. Trump’s standing with young adults — the kind of movement that is rare in modern polling. And even tabloid-to-mainstream outlets are documenting stories of young voters who once embraced the “America First” brand and now say the administration’s priorities and tone feel different from what they expected.

For Mr. Trump, the nightmare scenario is not simply bad approval numbers. It is the combination of low approval and high narrative velocity — a presidency defined not only by what happens, but by how fast and widely interpretations of what happens are shared, memed, and believed.

For Democrats, the opportunity is clear but conditional: frustration with the president does not automatically translate into votes for the opposition, especially among younger voters whose political participation can be sporadic. The question is whether the anger that powers viral clips can be converted into turnout in midterm districts where margins are thin.

What is already evident is that the president’s coalition — once held together by cultural grievance and economic promise — is being tugged apart by the pressures of governance. And younger Americans, facing the hardest affordability landscape in decades, appear less interested in explanations than in results.