Trump Faces Mounting Pressure as Epstein Files Questions and Poll Numbers Converge
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump is confronting a dual political challenge that is rapidly reshaping the landscape of his second term: intensifying scrutiny over the handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files and a measurable erosion of public support driven by economic anxiety and declining confidence among independent voters.
New reporting from Britain’s Channel 4 News has raised fresh doubts about the Justice Department’s assertion that it has released a comprehensive set of documents related to the Epstein investigation. According to emails reviewed by the broadcaster, federal investigators initially anticipated processing between 20 and 40 terabytes of data seized from Epstein’s properties in New York, Florida and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Internal communications reportedly suggested that the volume could reach as high as 50 terabytes in the early stages of the inquiry.
By comparison, the tranche of documents made public in recent weeks represents a fraction of that total. Legal experts note that terabytes of mixed digital evidence — emails, financial records, images, flight manifests and internal communications — can amount to tens of millions of individual files. The implication that only a small percentage has been disclosed has fueled accusations from critics that key materials remain withheld.
The Justice Department has maintained that it has complied with applicable court orders and privacy restrictions, including grand jury secrecy rules. Officials argue that redactions and withholding are legally mandated to protect victims and preserve due process. But critics, including several Democratic lawmakers who have reviewed partially unredacted files in secure facilities, contend that the scope of undisclosed material far exceeds what is justified by standard prosecutorial constraints.
The controversy has revived long-standing questions about the extent of Trump’s past association with Epstein, the financier and convicted sex offender who died in federal custody in 2019. Trump has denied any wrongdoing and has repeatedly said he distanced himself from Epstein years before the latter’s arrest. Nonetheless, the political sensitivity of the issue remains high, particularly among independent voters who tend to react sharply to perceptions of secrecy or institutional protection.
Those concerns come at a moment when the president’s approval ratings have reached new lows in multiple national surveys. According to aggregated polling discussed this week by CNN analyst Harry Enten, Trump’s net approval rating has fallen between 19 and 26 points underwater across several major pollsters, including the Associated Press-NORC, NBC News and Quinnipiac University. On average, he stands roughly 22 points below water — a weaker position than at the comparable stage of his first term.
The most striking deterioration appears among independents. In one recent survey, Trump’s net approval among independent voters was 27 points negative. Political scientists note that sustained deficits of that magnitude among the political center often signal midterm vulnerability. “When you lose independents by double digits, you put congressional majorities at risk,” said Lara Mitchell, a professor of political behavior at Georgetown University. “That’s historically consistent across administrations.”
The economic backdrop compounds the challenge. While headline indicators such as unemployment remain relatively stable, consumer sentiment has softened amid persistent inflation in housing, insurance and food costs. Critics argue that the administration’s messaging — which frequently emphasizes stock market performance and large-scale infrastructure initiatives — has not fully addressed the day-to-day financial pressures facing middle-income households.
Trump has sought to redirect attention toward what he characterizes as fiscal responsibility, recently criticizing the Gateway rail tunnel project connecting New York and New Jersey as a potential “boondoggle.” In a social media post, he insisted that the federal government would not assume responsibility for cost overruns and rejected suggestions that he had demanded naming rights in exchange for funding. Infrastructure advocates in the Northeast counter that delays in federal support risk exacerbating aging transit bottlenecks critical to the regional economy.
At the same time, the administration has faced legal setbacks on issues unrelated to Epstein but emblematic of broader tensions over executive authority. In a ruling this week, a federal judge appointed by President George W. Bush ordered the restoration of historical exhibits at a federal site in Philadelphia after finding that the government lacked authority to remove panels detailing aspects of George Washington’s relationship to slavery. In an opinion referencing George Orwell’s 1984, the judge warned against governmental manipulation of historical record, writing that the executive branch does not possess power to “dissemble and disassemble historical truths.”
The convergence of these disputes — legal, economic and reputational — has sharpened partisan lines while also exposing vulnerabilities within Trump’s broader coalition. Republican leaders publicly defend the president’s handling of the Epstein files and accuse Democrats of politicizing a criminal investigation. Privately, however, some strategists acknowledge unease about the persistence of the issue in media coverage.
“There’s fatigue among swing voters,” said a senior Republican consultant who requested anonymity to discuss internal polling. “When the conversation shifts from economic growth to document withholding and court rulings about transparency, that’s not terrain you want to fight on.”
Democratic officials have seized on the moment to frame the administration as insufficiently responsive to victims and overly focused on shielding political allies. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, a former state attorney general who led a landmark grand jury investigation into clergy abuse, recently criticized federal leadership for what he described as a failure to prioritize victims’ voices. While Shapiro stopped short of alleging wrongdoing by Trump, he argued that prosecutors must demonstrate independence and transparency in cases involving powerful figures.
The White House dismisses such criticisms as partisan attacks. A senior administration official said in a statement that the president “has directed full compliance with the law and will not compromise the rights of victims or ongoing investigations to satisfy political theater.”
For Trump, the political stakes are significant. Historical precedent suggests that presidents with deeply negative approval ratings entering a midterm cycle face an uphill battle in maintaining congressional control. In 2018, Republicans lost the House during Trump’s first term when his approval hovered in the mid-40s. President Joe Biden experienced similar headwinds in 2022, though losses were narrower than many analysts predicted.
Whether the current convergence of issues represents a temporary trough or a structural decline remains uncertain. Public opinion can shift rapidly in response to economic trends, legislative achievements or international events. Yet the durability of the Epstein controversy — coupled with independent voters’ skepticism — presents a test of Trump’s ability to reassert narrative control.
As Congress prepares for another round of oversight hearings and the Justice Department faces continued pressure to clarify the scope of unreleased materials, the president’s political calculus will hinge on restoring confidence among voters who have drifted away. For now, the numbers suggest a presidency navigating its most precarious stretch since returning to office — a moment defined as much by questions about transparency as by the economic promises that propelled his campaign.
