Iranian Security Forces Fracture as Protests Escalate, Raising Fears of Regime Instability

TEHRAN — In a sign of deepening cracks within Iran’s security apparatus, reports emerged in January 2026 of dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers and law enforcement personnel arrested for refusing orders to fire on anti-government protesters. The incidents, concentrated in cities like Kermanshah, marked a rare public acknowledgment of internal dissent in the regime’s most elite forces amid nationwide unrest that began late December 2025 and continued into February.

The protests, sparked by economic collapse, runaway inflation and the rial’s sharp depreciation, spread to all 31 provinces, becoming the most geographically expansive challenge to the Islamic Republic since 1979. Demonstrators demanded fundamental change, chanting against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and burning regime symbols. Authorities responded with lethal force, imposing internet blackouts and deploying IRGC Ground Forces — a step typically reserved for extreme threats.

Norway-based human rights group Hengaw reported that on January 8, several security personnel in Kermanshah were detained after defying kill orders. A Kurdish rights organization corroborated the arrests, describing uniformed officers who received direct commands to shoot civilians but refused. The IRGC Intelligence Organization issued a statement on January 10 admitting it was “dealing with possible acts of abandonment” within its ranks — an extraordinary public confession from the regime’s internal spy service.

Western intelligence, cited by Israel’s Channel 12, confirmed hundreds of junior and mid-level IRGC and Basij officers defected during the January wave, focusing on those who operate checkpoints and lead ground suppression. The regime reportedly reclassified protesters as “terrorists” to provide psychological and legal cover for lethal force, a move analysts interpret as evidence of eroding ideological cohesion.

Casualty figures underscore the turmoil. Regime-affiliated media reported 114 security personnel deaths — exceeding totals from prior protest cycles like the 2022-2023 Mahsa Amini movement. Anti-regime sources and rights groups documented far higher civilian tolls, with estimates ranging from thousands to tens of thousands killed in the January 8-9 crackdown alone, described by some as the deadliest state massacre in the Republic’s history.

Khamenei, facing mounting pressure, reportedly ordered the Supreme National Security Council to crush protests “by any means necessary.” A classified 2021 directive, annotated by Khamenei himself, authorized lethal force to preserve power — planning that analysts say reflected long-standing fears of military unreliability.

Diplomatic defections added to the unease. Several Iranian diplomats abroad quietly sought asylum information from European governments. Reports indicated parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf explored French visas. Russian IL-76 military transports flew frequent routes between southern Russia and Tehran in late 2025 and early 2026, with intelligence suggesting weapons inbound and gold outbound — interpreted as asset extraction amid instability.

U.S. and British agencies confirmed Khamenei developed a “Plan B” contingency to flee to Moscow with close family and aides if defections reached critical levels or suppression failed. The plan mirrored Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s 2024 escape.

A second protest wave erupted February 21 at universities nationwide, with students at elite institutions like Amir Kabir and Tehran burning flags in defiance. State television faced internal dissent, including a reporter reportedly slipping “death to Khamenei” on air during a revolutionary anniversary broadcast.

Analysts, including those from the Council on Foreign Relations, identified multiple indicators of regime fragility: defections, asylum-seeking officials, asset transfers and pre-planned lethal protocols. Yet U.S. officials expressed skepticism about imminent collapse, noting no widespread IRGC defections during January’s peak and the military’s reinforced role post-crackdown.

The unrest coincided with regional tensions, including U.S. military positioning and threats over Iran’s nuclear program. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress in January that Iran’s future leadership remained “an open question.”

As protests simmered into February, the regime’s survival hinged on loyalty within its security core. Reports of internal fractures offered hope to opponents but no guarantee of swift change. Iran’s path forward — continuity under hard-liners, military dominance or deeper unraveling — remained uncertain amid ongoing repression and external pressures.