New Zealand First is riding a powerful wave of momentum, surging to a new record high of 15% in the latest Talbot Mills Research poll. This internal poll, prepared for corporate clients and also used by the Labour Party, shows the party climbing a full four points since the previous survey – building impressively on its recent 13.6% result and confirming a consistent, accelerating rise in support.
Labour leads on 36% (up one point), while National has slipped back to 29% (down three points) and remains stuck below the 30% mark. ACT holds steady at 8% (up one), the Greens have dropped sharply to 7% (down four points to their lowest in this series since 2021), Opportunities sits on 2.3%, and Te Pāti Māori is on 1.9%.
Under New Zealand’s MMP system, these numbers would translate into a strong position for the centre-right bloc heading into the 7 November 2026 general election. National would be projected to secure around 37 seats, NZ First a substantial 19 seats, and ACT about 10 seats – delivering a solid majority for the current governing arrangement and ensuring continuity with a more influential NZ First presence at the table.
This latest Talbot Mills result highlights NZ First’s remarkable consistency and upward trajectory. Far from a one-off spike, the party has shown steady gains across recent polling, moving from solid low-teens figures to this fresh record of 15%. With seven months still to go until election day, the momentum is clearly building toward what could be a record-breaking performance for New Zealand First in November – potentially delivering its strongest result ever and cementing its role as a pivotal force in New Zealand politics.
Voters are increasingly turning to NZ First because they see it as the party best placed to deliver practical, common-sense outcomes for everyday Kiwis. In a political landscape often dominated by big-party compromises and ideological positioning, NZ First stands out for its experienced, independent voice that prioritises New Zealanders first. Under Winston Peters’ seasoned leadership, the party has a proven track record of championing regional development, supporting seniors and superannuitants, backing farmers and small businesses, and advocating for tougher law-and-order measures alongside smarter immigration policies that protect Kiwi opportunities.
Kiwis recognise that now is the right time to back NZ First. The party brings decades of battle-hardened experience in negotiating strong, results-focused coalition agreements that secure real wins for the heartland – without being beholden to any single interest group or fleeting trend. Its focus on pragmatism, accountability, and long-term thinking for provincial New Zealand resonates deeply with families, workers, and communities who want a government that delivers tangible progress rather than endless Wellington spin.
The preferred Prime Minister standings further underscore this appeal: Winston Peters is polling strongly at 15%, nipping closely at the heels of the major party leaders and reflecting the respect many Kiwis have for his no-nonsense style and deep political acumen.
As the campaign toward 7 November heats up, NZ First’s consistent rise signals that voters are rewarding a party that has always put New Zealand and its people at the centre of its mission. With this latest record high in even Labour’s own polling data, the party is firmly on track for what looks set to be a standout, historic success at the ballot box – strengthening its influence and ensuring that pragmatic, heartland-focused politics continues to shape New Zealand’s future.
New Zealand First’s momentum is real, its message is cutting through, and the coming months promise to reward the party that has consistently demonstrated resilience, results, and a fierce commitment to what matters most to ordinary Kiwis.
