Polls Show a Presidency Without Public Consent

For a president newly returned to office, the numbers are striking — and historically bleak.

A series of national surveys released in recent weeks show Donald Trump with an approval rating hovering around 40 percent, while roughly 60 percent of Americans disapprove of his performance. The results, consistent across polls conducted by CNN, Pew Research Center, and AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, suggest not a temporary dip, but a sustained deficit of public support one year into his second term.

Presidents often struggle in their second terms. Voters reassess, patience wears thin, and midterm elections loom. But political scientists note that Trump’s numbers are unusual not only for their depth, but for their stability. There has been no honeymoon period, no rebound, and no clear path back to majority approval.

The Intensity Problem

Beyond topline approval ratings, the most consequential data point may be the intensity of opposition. Nearly half of respondents in a late-2025 national survey said they strongly disapproved of Trump’s job performance. In polling terms, that distinction matters.

Strong disapproval reflects more than dissatisfaction. It signals hardened attitudes — voters unlikely to be persuaded, more likely to mobilize, donate, protest, or vote against the president’s party in midterm elections. Historically, presidents facing that level of intense opposition struggle to advance major legislative agendas and often become focal points of midterm backlash.

By comparison, the share of Americans who strongly approve of Trump remains significantly smaller, creating what analysts describe as an “intensity gap”: opponents are more motivated than supporters.

How Trump Compares

Measured against recent presidents at a similar point in their terms, Trump’s standing is among the weakest on record. Barack Obama maintained approval ratings above 50 percent during much of his first term. George W. Bush, even amid the Iraq War and the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, remained in the mid-to-high 40s at comparable moments.

Trump’s approval, by contrast, has remained near 40 percent since the start of his second term, according to multiple surveys — a level that leaves little room for political maneuver.

Policy Disapproval Across the Board

The polling also reveals broad dissatisfaction with the administration’s policy agenda.

Majorities of respondents disapprove of Trump’s approach to tariffs, which have been a central feature of his economic strategy. According to Pew, nearly six in ten Americans say those policies are harming the economy rather than strengthening it. Government spending cuts, another signature initiative, fare similarly, with more than half of voters saying the reductions have damaged services they rely on.

On economic management more broadly, voters express persistent concern about prices and cost of living. While macroeconomic indicators such as employment and growth remain mixed, public perception has tilted sharply negative — and presidents are judged less by statistics than by daily experience.

The Independent Voter Collapse

Perhaps the most alarming number for the White House comes from independent voters, who make up the largest share of the electorate. In several recent polls, Trump’s approval among independents has fallen into the mid-20s.

That level of support is not merely low; it is electorally crippling. Independents decide close races and determine congressional control in midterms. A president rejected by three-quarters of that bloc faces near-certain losses for his party.

Trump continues to command strong loyalty among Republicans, with approval in the mid-70s within the party. But Republicans represent roughly 30 percent of the electorate. Even near-unanimous party support cannot offset broad opposition elsewhere.

Do Americans Want Him Gone?

Some commentators have extrapolated from the data to claim that “80 percent” of Americans want Trump out of office. Pollsters caution against reading a single number too literally. Still, the broader sentiment is clear.

Large majorities disapprove of Trump’s performance. Nearly half strongly disapprove. Majorities oppose his core policies. And in past surveys, clear majorities have said he should not hold office again.

Whether voters prefer resignation, impeachment, electoral defeat, or simple political constraint varies. But the unifying thread is rejection — a sense that the presidency lacks popular consent.

Governing in the Minority

Presidents do not need universal approval to govern. But modern American politics makes sustained minority rule difficult.

Low approval weakens leverage over Congress, emboldens opposition, and discourages lawmakers from aligning themselves with the White House. Already, signs of distance are emerging within Trump’s own party, as lawmakers in competitive districts weigh loyalty against electoral survival.

With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, history suggests that Trump’s party faces steep losses. Presidents with approval ratings near 40 percent almost always see their parties lose control of at least one chamber of Congress.

Resignation, Removal — or Stalemate?

Despite speculation, few observers believe Trump is likely to resign. He has repeatedly dismissed such suggestions and shown little inclination to retreat under pressure.

But resignation is not the only measure of political viability. An unpopular president can remain in office while losing the ability to govern effectively — blocked legislatively, constrained politically, and constantly under scrutiny.

Calls for impeachment or constitutional remedies may grow louder as disapproval hardens, even if the numbers in Congress remain insufficient to act. In that sense, the polling may matter less for what it forces Trump to do than for how it shapes the environment around him.

What the Numbers Mean

Polling does not dictate outcomes. It reflects mood, not destiny. Presidents have recovered from low points before.

But sustained disapproval at this scale, across issues and demographics, suggests something deeper than a bad news cycle. It points to a presidency facing a legitimacy problem — not in the legal sense, but in the democratic one.

Power in American politics ultimately depends on consent. Right now, the numbers suggest that consent is thin, eroding, and unevenly distributed.

And unlike scandals or speeches, polling trends rarely disappear overnight. They follow presidents into every negotiation, every election, and every moment of political judgment that comes next.