Trump, USMCA, and the Gordie Howe Bridge: Are U.S.–Canada Trade Tensions About to Explode?

U.S.–Canada trade tensions are escalating once again as Donald Trump reportedly weighs whether he can abandon the USMCA trade agreement — the very deal he once praised as the greatest in history. At the same time, Trump has threatened to block the opening of the $6.5 billion Gordie Howe International Bridge connecting Detroit, Michigan, and Windsor, Ontario, a project largely financed by Canada.

The developments raise serious legal, economic, and diplomatic questions. Is this tough negotiation strategy — or a constitutional stress test with global consequences?

From “Greatest Trade Deal Ever” to Disposable Agreement?

In 2020, Donald Trump signed the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), replacing NAFTA. At the time, he celebrated it as a historic victory for American workers, farmers, and manufacturers. The deal was marketed as bringing stability, fairness, and certainty to North American trade.

Now, according to multiple reports, Trump has privately questioned why he cannot simply withdraw from the agreement.

The shift is striking. The USMCA is not a handshake arrangement between personalities. It is a binding international agreement negotiated between governments and ratified through legislative processes in all three countries. It governs supply chains, auto production rules, agricultural exports, labor standards, and billions of dollars in cross-border commerce.

If Trump were to pursue USMCA withdrawal, the legal and economic fallout would be enormous.

“They Need Us More”: The Leverage Argument

Some Trump allies argue that Canada depends more heavily on U.S. trade than the United States depends on Canada. While it is true that Canada exports a larger share of its goods to the U.S. than vice versa, the relationship is deeply interconnected.

Every day, thousands of trucks cross between Michigan and Ontario. Billions of dollars in goods move annually across the Detroit–Windsor corridor. Auto manufacturing, agriculture, steel, energy, and advanced manufacturing industries are tightly integrated across borders.

Disrupting this flow would not simply “hurt Canada.” It would affect American auto workers in Michigan, farmers in Iowa, energy producers in Texas, and manufacturers throughout the Midwest.

Markets thrive on predictability. Threatening to tear up trade agreements creates uncertainty — and uncertainty slows investment.

The Gordie Howe Bridge Controversy

Adding fuel to the fire is Trump’s threat to block the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge.

In a lengthy social media post, Trump claimed the United States had not been properly compensated and suggested he would not allow the bridge to open until America was “fully compensated for everything we have given them.”

However, facts complicate that claim.

Canada financed the majority of the $6.5 billion project, including fronting funds for the U.S. side of construction. Ownership of the bridge will be shared between Canada and the State of Michigan. American steel was used in portions of the project, contradicting claims that there were “virtually no U.S. components.”

The bridge has been under development for more than 20 years. Trump himself supported its construction during his first term in 2017.

Prime Minister Mark Carney publicly responded, stating clearly that the bridge “is going to open” and emphasizing its importance for commerce, tourism, and cross-border travel. Carney underscored that partnerships between sovereign nations do not function through unilateral ultimatums.

Executive Power vs. Congressional Authority

Beyond trade policy, the dispute raises a deeper constitutional question: Can a president unilaterally abandon USMCA?

Under the U.S. Constitution, Congress has the authority to regulate commerce with foreign nations. Trade agreements are implemented through congressional legislation. While presidents negotiate international agreements, they do not have unlimited power to dismantle statutory law once Congress has acted.

If Trump attempted to withdraw from USMCA without congressional authorization, federal courts would likely be asked to intervene.

Judges traditionally focus on institutional authority and separation of powers. When executive action appears to override legislative authority, courts often scrutinize it carefully. This would not simply be about Canada — it would be about preserving the constitutional balance.

Economic Consequences of a Trade Breakdown

The U.S.–Canada economic relationship is one of the largest in the world. Canada is one of America’s top trading partners. Key sectors include:

• Automotive manufacturing

• Agriculture and dairy

• Energy exports

• Steel and aluminum

• Technology supply chains

The Detroit–Windsor crossing alone handles billions in annual trade. The new Gordie Howe Bridge was designed to ease congestion, strengthen supply chain resilience, and support economic growth in both countries.

Blocking the bridge or unraveling USMCA would send shockwaves through financial markets. Businesses that depend on cross-border certainty could delay hiring, reduce investment, or shift supply chains.

Allies and investors watch these signals closely. Stability builds confidence. Volatility erodes it.

Is This Negotiation Tactics — or Institutional Risk?

Supporters frame Trump’s approach as leverage — a hardline negotiating tactic designed to extract concessions. Critics argue it resembles brinkmanship that risks damaging long-term alliances.

Trade agreements are built on trust and mutual benefit. They function because all parties believe commitments will be honored.

When agreements appear conditional on political impulse, confidence weakens.

The founders of the United States designed a system to prevent concentrated economic power in a single office. They had experienced a monarchy that could impose trade restrictions and economic punishment unilaterally. The Constitution distributed that authority intentionally.

If this dispute escalates into a legal battle over executive authority and trade law, it could become one of the most significant constitutional tests in recent decades.

The Bigger Picture

This story is not just about Canada. It is not just about a bridge. And it is not only about Trump.

It is about whether the United States remains a nation governed by predictable laws and institutional checks — or one where international agreements can be treated as temporary bargaining chips.

The USMCA affects millions of workers across North America. The Gordie Howe Bridge symbolizes cross-border cooperation and economic interdependence. The courts, if called upon, will not be defending Canada or opposing a president. They will be defending the architecture of American governance.

As U.S.–Canada trade tensions rise, the world is watching closely.

Will this moment reinforce the rule of law — or redefine the limits of executive power in global trade?

The answer may shape North American commerce for years to come.