Labor’s Housing Backflip Propels One Nation to Record High, Poll Shows

SYDNEY, Australia — The first opinion poll since the Labor government abandoned its promise not to touch housing investor tax benefits has delivered a political earthquake, with One Nation surging to its highest level of popular support in years and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese falling to second place as the preferred leader.

The Resolve Political Monitor, published Monday, shows support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party climbing two percentage points to 24 percent — a result that places the populist right-wing party within striking distance of the major parties and signals a dramatic realignment of the Australian electorate.

Even more striking, the poll found that Hanson has become the most “likeable” politician in the country, with a net performance rating of plus 12 percentage points. She now sits ahead of the Liberal Party leader, Angus Taylor, who recorded a plus 11 rating, and far above Albanese, whose net likability has sunk to minus 13 — down one point from an already dismal position the previous month.

“I’ve never seen anything quite like it,” said Jim Reed, a veteran pollster and political analyst. “A minor party leader becoming the most liked politician in the country, while the sitting prime minister is in negative double digits? That is not a blip. That is a trend.”

The numbers represent a stunning reversal of fortune for Albanese, who entered 2024 with strong approval ratings and widespread expectations that he would lead Labor to a second consecutive term. But a series of policy reversals, economic headwinds, and a sustained opposition campaign appears to have eroded his standing.

The most damaging reversal, according to focus groups conducted alongside the poll, was Labor’s decision to scale back negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions for housing investors — a policy the government had explicitly promised it would not pursue.

When Treasurer Jim Chalmers handed down the 2026-27 budget last month, it included provisions to pair back the capital gains tax discount and stop negative gearing for all but new properties or those already negatively geared. The move was framed as an affordability measure aimed at helping first-home buyers.

But voters, it seems, remember the promise Labor made before the 2022 election: that a Labor government would “not make any changes to negative gearing or capital gains tax.”

“We were told one thing and now they’re doing another,” said Margaret Chen, a small-business owner in suburban Melbourne. “It’s not even about the policy itself anymore. It’s about trust. And I don’t trust him.”

Labor’s housing changes, which will be introduced when parliament resumes later this month, are designed to phase out tax benefits for property investors over several years. The government argues that the current system has distorted the housing market, pushing up prices and locking young Australians out of home ownership.

But the policy has proved deeply unpopular with a significant segment of the electorate, particularly older homeowners and investors who have built wealth through property. And Hanson’s One Nation has capitalized ruthlessly.

At a rally in Queensland last weekend, Hanson framed the housing changes as “a war on Australian families who worked hard and did the right thing.”

“Labor promised you they wouldn’t touch negative gearing,” Hanson told a cheering crowd. “Then they did. They lied to your face. And now they expect you to trust them on anything else? Not on my watch.”

The second major shock in the Resolve poll is the rise of Angus Taylor. The Liberal leader, who took over after Peter Dutton’s resignation following the 2025 election loss, has consolidated support among conservative voters while also making inroads with disaffected Labor supporters.

Taylor now leads Albanese as preferred prime minister, with 33 percent support compared to Albanese’s 30 percent — a margin that, while narrow, represents a symbolic turning point. The remainder of respondents were undecided or supported other candidates.

“Taylor has been a careful, disciplined opposition leader,” said Dr. Narelle Miragliotta, a political scientist at Monash University. “He has allowed Labor to make its own mistakes while steadily building an alternative economic narrative. The housing backflip gave him the opening he needed.”

Taylor’s net performance rating of plus 11 is particularly notable given that he remains relatively unknown to many Australians outside political circles. The fact that he now rivals Hanson in popularity — and exceeds Albanese significantly — suggests that the opposition’s message is resonating.

In a statement following the poll’s release, Taylor struck a measured tone. “This is not about me,” he said. “This is about Australians who feel that Labor broke its word and that the cost of living is crushing families. We will continue to hold the government accountable.”

Hanson’s surge, however, presents a more complex challenge for both major parties. At 24 percent, One Nation is now polling at levels that would give it significant leverage in a hung parliament. The party currently holds just two seats in the House of Representatives but has three senators. A doubling or tripling of that representation is no longer unthinkable.

“This is the most dangerous number in the entire poll,” said Reed, the pollster. “Twenty-four percent for a minor party in a two-party-preferred system is a warning siren. It tells you that the center is not holding.”

The poll also revealed significant demographic divides. Hanson’s support is strongest among voters over 55, those without university degrees, and residents of Queensland and Western Australia. Albanese’s support is concentrated in inner-city electorates, among younger voters, and in Victoria and New South Wales.

But the most striking demographic finding was among working-class voters in outer suburban and regional electorates — traditional Labor heartland. In those seats, One Nation is now running second, ahead of the Liberals, and closing fast on Labor.

“The working class is fragmenting,” said Miragliotta. “Labor assumed that once the pandemic and the Morrison government were behind us, those voters would come home. They haven’t. And now Labor’s own policy choices are pushing them further away.”

Labor strategists, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, acknowledged that the housing backflip had been “politically costly” but argued that the policy was necessary to address a generational housing crisis.

“We knew this would be a tough sell,” one senior Labor source said. “But doing nothing on housing was not an option. The problem is that the message got muddled, and Hanson filled the vacuum.”

The government has attempted to reset the narrative. In a speech to the Labor caucus on Tuesday, Albanese acknowledged that “trust is hard to earn and easy to lose” but argued that “courageous decisions are not always popular decisions.”

“The housing market is broken,” Albanese said. “We were elected to fix it. That is what we are doing. And I believe Australians will reward courage when they see the results.”

Whether voters will wait for those results is another matter. The next federal election is expected in late 2027 or early 2028, giving Labor time to recover. But the Resolve poll suggests that the political damage from the housing backflip is not static — it is deepening.

Hanson, for her part, shows no sign of moderating her message. In a series of social media posts following the poll’s release, she celebrated her “likeability” rating with characteristic defiance.

“They said I was unelectable,” she wrote. “They said I was a protest vote. Now I am the most liked politician in Australia. The people are speaking. Is anyone listening?”

For Albanese, the question is increasingly urgent. He has slipped to second as preferred prime minister. His likability is in negative territory. And a minor party leader has stolen the mantle of political authenticity that he once wore comfortably.

The housing policy that was meant to define his legacy may instead define his undoing. And in the wings, One Nation waits — not as a curiosity, but as a genuine electoral force.